Academic Report of the School of Mathematical Sciences [2025] No. 090

(High-level University Construction Series Report No. 1112)

Lecture Title: HPV VACCINATION STRATEGIES FOR MSM IN CHINA: AN AGENT-BASED MODEL ON A TWO-LAYER SEXUAL CONTACT NETWORK

Lecturer: Associate Professor Yao Ye (Fudan University)

Lecture Time: September 29, 2025, 15:00-16:00

Venue: Huiwen Building, Room 1420

Abstract:

Despite the high burden of HPV-related diseases among men who have sex with men (MSM), few modeling studies have assessed the health and economic benefits of HPV vaccination in this population in developing countries. With female-targeted vaccination programs expanding, and China recently approving HPV vaccination for males, timely modeling evidence is needed to guide MSM-targeted vaccination strategies and policy decisions. We developed and validated a dynamic agent-based model using a two-layer sexual contact network comprising MSM, heterosexual men, and women. Sexual behavior parameters were derived from real data. HPV transmission was simulated under a scenario assuming 90% female vaccination coverage by 2030. MSM-targeted vaccination strategies were evaluated across different initiation years (2025, 2030, 2035, 2040), coverage levels (10–90%), and age-targeting approaches. HPV parameters were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and a 50-year Markov model calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The model was validated by reproducing HIV transmission, supporting its applicability for simulating HPV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). HPV vaccination was cost-effective across all initiation years and coverage levels over the 50-year horizon. In most coverage scenarios, delayed initiation yielded lower ICERs, but at the cost of increased disease burden during the delay. When allocating vaccines by age, strategies prioritizing younger MSM consistently achieved the greatest reduction in HPV infections. By incorporating bisexual MSM-female contact, the model realistically captured cross-group transmission dynamics. This two-layer network model captures indirect transmission dynamics from the heterosexual population to MSM, providing a novel framework for STI modeling in MSM. The dynamic two-layer network, considering 90% female vaccination coverage by 2030, demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for MSM.

Lecturer's Biography:

Associate Professor Yao Ye is from the School of Public Health, Fudan University. He engages in research on artificial intelligence and statistical simulation driven by medical big data, as well as artificial intelligence technology and its application in medical imaging research. His main research directions include parameter estimation and simulation based on Markov models, mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, statistical analysis of multi-type medical data, and AI application in medical imaging. In recent years, he has published numerous papers as the first author or corresponding author in well-known medical journals such as European Respiratory Journal, Journal of Infection, eLife, BMC Medicinek BMJ Global Health, Infectious Disease Modelling and Infectious Diseases of Poverty. His research results have also been submitted to governments at all levels in the form of policy recommendations through internal references/special reports at various levels, and have received a letter of recognition from the National Administration of Disease Prevention and Control and instructions from members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. In addition, he has presided over a number of projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation and several horizontal projects, with a total funding of over 3 million yuan in the past five years. Associate Professor Yao has successively won titles and awards including "Zhongying Young Scholar" of Fudan University, the Second Prize of Shanghai Science and Technology Progress Award (ranking 2nd among 10 recipients), "Young Talent in Health of Shanghai Municipality", the Second Prize of "Excellent Teacher" of the One Health Fund, and "Advanced Individual in Fighting the COVID-19 Pandemic" of Fudan University.

Faculty and students are welcome to attend!

Inviter: Yuan Pei

School of Mathematical Sciences

September 26, 2025