Academic Report of School of Mathematical Sciences [2025] No. 153

(Series Report for High-Level University Construction No. 1254)

Title：Bayesian Structural Equation Multi-State Model for Mediation Analysis

Speaker： Professor Chunjie Wang（Changchun University of Technology）

Time：17:20-18:20, Dec.11, 2025

Location：Tencent Meeting (Number: 673-683-763)

Abstract：This study introduces a joint modeling framework that integrates structural equation modeling (SEM) with multi-state semi-competing risks models to investigate the complex causal mechanism among exposure, latent mediators, and multiple survival outcomes. The framework first employs a linear SEM to characterize latent mediators underlying highly correlated observable surrogates. These latent mediators are then incorporated into semi-parametric proportional hazards models with frailty to assess their mediating roles in the relationships between exposure and multiple correlated survival outcomes. Estimation and inference are conducted within an integrated Bayesian framework leveraging Monte Carlo methods, Gibbs sampling, and the Metropolis Hastings algorithm. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the proposed method. Application to the Framingham Heart Study uncovers causal pathways linking smoking and metabolic health factors and evaluates their combined impact on long-term cardiovascular outcomes, offering new insights into the complex interplay between lifestyle factors and health risks.

Speaker Profile：Chunjie Wang , Professor and Doctoral Supervisor, currently serves as Dean of the School of Mathematics and Statistics at Changchun University of Technology. He is a recipient of the State Council Special Government Allowance, a Jilin Provincial Outstanding Young Scientist, a Jilin Provincial Changbai Elite Leading Talent, and a Jilin Provincial Top-tier Innovative Talent. He also leads a national first-class discipline program and serves as the principal lecturer for a national first-class course. Additionally, he heads a provincial-level Huang Danian Teaching and Research Team. He serves as a council member of the Chinese Society for Field Statistics, a council member of the Probability and Statistics Research Society of the Chinese Mathematical Society, an executive council member of the National Industrial Statistics Teaching Research Association, Vice President of the Bayesian Statistics Branch of the Chinese Society for Field Statistics, Vice President of the Resources and Environmental Statistics Branch of the Chinese Society for Field Statistics, Vice President of the Jilin Provincial Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, and Vice President of the Jilin Provincial Society for Field Statistics. Professor Wang Chunjie has published over 100 research papers in biostatistics, medical and industrial big data, and medical image analysis, including 40 SCI-indexed papers. He has led two National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) General Projects, one NSFC Young Scientist Fund Project, one Tianyuan Fund Project, and one Jilin Province Major Automobile Special Project (3 million RMB). In 2022, he received the First Prize of Jilin Province Teaching Achievement Award, and in 2023, the Second Prize of Jilin Province Natural Science Award.

Faculty and students are welcome to attend!

Invited by:  Yan Zhou

School of Mathematical Sciences

December 9, 2025